ROAD TO KENYA ELECTIONS 2017: WHO WILL HAVE THE TYRANNY OF NUMBERS IN 2017?

INTRODUCTION
In the 2013 General Elections, which had the highest turn-out of any election in Kenya’s history (85.91 %), 2 million registered voters did not vote and 7.8 million eligible voters did not even register. That is a total eligible voter loss of 9.8 million (45 % of Adult population did not vote in 2013). Despite setting a voter registration target of 18.2 million Kenyans for the 2013 General Elections, the Independent Elections and Boundaries Commission (IEBC), managed to register only 14.3 million voters (78.6 % of target), by 18th December, 2012. The incremental difference between the 2007 and 2013 Elections was only 56,353, compared with 3,845,030 between the 2002 and 2007 Elections.

IEBC is now targeting to register 11.4 million Kenyans in order to reach a target of 25.7 million eligible voters before the 2017 General Elections, but this figure may be unrealistic as it’s based on the assumption that Kenya ‘s projected population would be 51.4 million in 2017. The actual projected population would be 48.3 million based on average annual growth rate of 2.4 %. Hence since adults make up 50 % of Kenya‘s population, and an average of 80 % of adults usually register as voters, the estimated voters would be 19.3 million (See Report 1A). If 90 % voter registration is achieved, then the figure rises to 21.7 million (See Report 2A). So IEBC should expect to register only 5 million new voters if 80 % registration is achieved or 7.3 million if 90 % is achieved.

2017 VOTER REGISTRATION ESTIMATE
In order to estimate the voter registration in 2017 by county and coalition, I used the Kenya Election Database Version 2.0, an Election Data Analysis and Strategic Election Planning software. From data extracted from the software, it was possible to prepare excel spreadsheets that show voter estimates at 80 % registration for all counties (Report 1A), for CORD strongholds (Report 1B), Jubilee strongholds (Report 1C), and Fifty/Fifty counties (Report 1D). I have also prepared spreadsheets to show voter estimates at 90 % registration for all counties (Report 2A), for CORD strongholds (Report 2B), Jubilee strongholds (Report 2C), and Fifty/Fifty counties (Report 2D).

County strongholds were determined by which coalition garnered the majority votes (above 66.6 %) in that county in the 2013 Presidential Elections. Where both coalitions failed to get a majority, then that county was designated “Fifty/Fifty”. For example in Narok County, the 5 out of the 6 constituencies elected an M.P. affiliated to the Jubilee coalition, but Raila Odinga of CORD had more votes than Uhuru Kenyatta of Jubilee (50 % against 46 %), hence making Narok a “Fifty/Fifty” county. Although Vihiga County was won by Musalia Mudavadi of Amani coalition, it is unlikely that he will stand again in 2017; hence Vihiga was placed under CORD.

Cord County Strongholds

NUMBER	COUNTY	MAIN ETHNIC GROUP	2017 POPULATION PROJECTION	2017 VOTER ESTIMATE	CORD %	JUBILEE %	TOTAL %
01	MOMBASA	COSMOPOLITAN	1,175,152	470,061	72	24	96.00
02	KWALE	DIGO	813,064	325,225	82	14	96.00
03	KILIFI	GIRIAMA	1,388,278	555,311	85	11	96.00
04	TANA RIVER	POKOMO	300,334	120,134	62	35	97.00
06	TAITA-TAVETA	TAITA	356,106	142,442	83	14	97.00
15	KITUI	KAMBA	1,266,899	506,760	81	15	96.00
16	MACHAKOS	KAMBA	1,374,329	549,731	87	10	97.00
17	MAKUENI	KAMBA	1,106,543	442,617	92	5	97.00
23	TURKANA	TURKANA	1,070,104	428,042	68	30	98.00
37	KAKAMEGA	LUHYA	2,077,474	830,990	95	3	98.00
38	VIHIGA	LUHYA	693,832	277,533	95	2	97.00
39	BUNGOMA	LUHYA	1,720,204	688,082	84	12	96.00
40	BUSIA	LUHYA	930,676	372,271	95	4	99.00
41	SIAYA	LUO	1,053,722	421,489	98	1	99.00
42	KISUMU	LUO	1,212,105	484,842	98	1	99.00
43	HOMA BAY	LUO	1,205,706	482,283	99	1	100.00
44	MIGORI	LUO	1,147,380	458,952	88	10	98.00
45	KISII	KISII	1,441,505	576,602	69	27	96.00
46	NYAMIRA	KISII	748,413	299,365	67	29	96.00
			21,081,827	8,432,731	84.21	13.05	97.26

Jubilee County Strongholds

NUMBER	COUNTY	MAIN ETHNIC GROUP	2017 POPULATION PROJECTION	2017 VOTER ESTIMATE	CORD %	JUBILEE %	TOTAL %
09	MANDERA	KENYAN SOMALI	1,283,221	513,288	4	93	97.00
12	MERU	MERU	1,696,733	678,693	8	89	97.00
13	THARAKA-NITHI	MERU	457,028	182,811	5	92	97.00
14	EMBU	EMBU	645,781	258,312	10	89	99.00
18	NYANDARUA	KIKUYU	745,931	298,373	1	97	98.00
19	NYERI	KIKUYU	867,641	347,056	2	96	98.00
20	KIRINYAGA	KIKUYU	660,596	264,238	1	97	98.00
21	MURANGA	KIKUYU	1,179,169	471,668	2	96	98.00
22	KIAMBU	KIKUYU	2,030,726	812,290	8	90	98.00
24	WEST POKOT	POKOT	641,375	256,550	24	73	97.00
27	UASIN GISHU	KALENJIN	1,118,618	447,447	24	74	98.00
28	ELGEYO MARAKWET	KALENJIN	462,867	185,147	6	92	98.00
29	NANDI	KALENJIN	941,959	376,784	16	82	98.00
30	BARINGO	KALENJIN	695,007	278,003	10	88	98.00
31	LAIKIPIA	KIKUYU	499,433	199,773	14	85	99.00
32	NAKURU	COSMOPOLITAN	2,005,760	802,304	18	80	98.00
35	KERICHO	KALENJIN	948,682	379,473	3	91	94.00
36	BOMET	KALENJIN	905,957	362,383	5	93	98.00
			17,786,483	7,114,593	8.94	88.72	97.67

Fifty-Fifty Counties

NUMBER	COUNTY	MAIN ETHNIC GROUP	2017 POPULATION PROJECTION	2017 VOTER ESTIMATE	CORD %	JUBILEE %	TOTAL %
05	LAMU	BAJUN	127,025	50,810	53	40	93.00
07	GARISSA	KENYAN SOMALI	779,448	311,779	49	45	94.00
08	WAJIR	KENYAN SOMALI	828,088	331,235	50	39	89.00
10	MARSABIT	BORAN	364,249	145,699	49	47	96.00
11	ISIOLO	BORAN	179,261	71,704	30	55	85.00
25	SAMBURU	SAMBURU	280,158	112,063	58	41	99.00
26	TRANS NZOIA	COSMOPOLITAN	1,024,265	409,706	58	37	95.00
33	NAROK	MAASAI	1,064,501	425,800	50	46	96.00
34	KAJIADO	MAASAI	859,827	343,931	45	52	97.00
47	NAIROBI	COSMOPOLITAN	3,926,100	1,570,440	51	47	98.00
	TOTALS		9,432,922	3,773,169	49.30	44.90	94.20

2017 VOTER REGISTRATION ESTIMATE IF 80 % REGISTRATION
According to Report 1A, the 2017 population projection for “Fifty/Fifty” counties is 9.4 million and voter registration estimate is 3.7 million if 80 % registration is achieved. CORD’s share is 51 % (1.9 million) hence total estimated voters are 10.3 million. Jubilee’s share is 46 % (1.7 million) hence total estimated voters are 8.8 million as shown on table below.

Voter Estimate at 80% Registration

COALITION	COUNTIES	COUNTY POPULATION	2012 REGISTERED VOTERS	2017 POPULATION PROJECTION	2017 VOTER ESTIMATE	50/50 VOTER ESTIMATE	TOTALS
CORD	19	16,851,980	5,685,292	21,081,827	8,432,731	1,946,036	10,378,767
JUBILEE	18	14,217,812	5,618,248	17,786,483	7,114,593	1,737,734	8,852,327
50/50	10	7,540,305	3,046,356	9,432,922	3,773,169	0	0
TOTALS	47	38,610,097	14,349,896	48,301,232	19,320,493	3,683,770	19,231,094
						CORD	10,378,767
						JUBILEE	8,852,327
						TOTAL	19,231,094
						VARIANCE	1,526,440

Hence out of the 19.2 million estimated registered voters in 2017, 10.3 million will come from CORD counties and CORD supporters in Fifty/Fifty counties and 8.8 million will come from Jubilee counties and Jubilee supporters in “Fifty/Fifty” counties. Hence CORD estimated voters will exceed Jubilee’s by 1.5 million.
2017 VOTER REGISTRATION ESTIMATE IF 90 % REGISTRATION
According to Report 2A, the 2017 population projection for “Fifty/Fifty” counties is 9.4 million and voter registration estimate is 4.1 million if 90 % registration is achieved. CORD’s share is 51 % (2.1 million) hence total estimated voters are 11.6 million. Jubilee’s share is 46 % (1.9 million) hence total estimated voters are 9.9 million as shown on table below.

Voter Estimate at 90% Registration

COALITION	COUNTIES	COUNTY POPULATION	2012 REGISTERED VOTERS	2017 POPULATION PROJECTION	2017 VOTER ESTIMATE	50/50 VOTER ESTIMATE	TOTALS
CORD	19	16,851,980	5,685,292	21,081,827	9,486,822	2,189,290	11,676,112
JUBILEE	18	14,217,812	5,497,480	17,786,483	8,003,917	1,954,951	9,958,868
50/50	10	7,540,305	3,046,356	9,432,922	4,144,241	0	0
TOTALS	47	38,610,097	14,229,128	48,301,232	21,634,980	4,144,241	21,634,980
						CORD	11,676,112
						JUBILEE	9,958,868
						TOTAL	21,634,980
						VARIANCE	1,717,244

Hence out of the 21.6 million estimated registered voters in 2017, 11.6 million will come from CORD counties and CORD supporters in Fifty/Fifty counties and 9.9 million will come from Jubilee counties and Jubilee supporters in “Fifty/Fifty” counties. Hence CORD estimated voters will exceed Jubilee’s by 1.7 million.
Please note that not all voters in a coalition’s county stronghold will vote for that particular coalition but the aim of these reports is estimate how many voters are expected to be on the IEBC’s official Principal Register of Voters by the date of the 2017 General Elections on 8th August, 2017.
NEW “COMING OF AGE” VOTERS
According to the 2009 population census, there were 7.2 million Kenyans aged 11-18 out of which 3.4 million would have reached the age of 18 by 2012 and able to register as voters. But due to the low number of voters registered by December, 2012 (14.3 million out of target of 18 million), it seems most were not registered. Since the IEBC does not give the voter’s age when registering, it not possible to know the exact number.
Hence by 2017, it is estimated that about 5.8 million Kenyans who had not turned 18 by 2009 will have done so to enable then to register. Due to mortality and other factors only 80% of the 7.2 million will be eligible to register but some may not do so by either choice or delay in issuing ID cards.

Kenya Voting Age Group since August 2009 Census

AGE IN 2009	POPULATION	AGE IN 2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
11	842,590	15	16	17	18	19
12	1,100,601	16	17	18	19	20
13	963,285	17	18	19	20	21
14	929,757	18	19	20	21	22
TOTAL	3,836,233	NOT QUALIFIED TO REGISTER IN 2012
15	895,834	19	20	21	22	23
16	856,398	20	21	22	23	24
17	823,628	21	22	23	24	25
18	887,693	22	23	24	25	26
TOTAL	3,463,553	QUALIFIED TO REGISTER IN 2012
				TOTAL	ESTIMATE 80 %
AGE 12-18 IN 2009 WILL QUALIFY TO REGISTER IN 2016-TOTAL				6,457,196	5,165,757
AGE 11-18 IN 2009 WILL QUALIFY TO REGISTER IN 2017-TOTAL				7,299,786	5,839,829

DIASPORA VOTERS
The number of Kenyans in the Diaspora is estimated at 3 million, mostly in the United States, Britain, Germany, South Africa and United Arab Emirates. In the 2013 Elections only Kenyans living in Uganda and Tanzania were allowed to register and vote. Although the 2010 Constitution allows dual citizenship, the logistics and legal provisions led to the IEBC in abandoning plans for Diaspora registration and voting in 2013, except in East African. It is not clear if these problems will have been overcome by 2017. But the Diaspora is expected to have little impact in the voter registration for the 2017 General Elections, although the IEBC has started to collect data on Kenyans in the Diaspora on their website- http://www.iebc.or.ke
There is an estimated 500,000 Kenyans in the United States, 150,000 in Britain and 50,000 in the United Arab Emirates. About 70 % of the estimated 3 million Kenyans in the Diaspora are adults thus eligible to register and vote.

CONCLUSION
As long as voter registration is voluntary, it will be impossible to achieve 90 % voter registration and even this will be hard to attain unless the IEBC and political parties/coalitions came up with strategies to ensure most eligible Kenyans register. A radical solution is to make voter registration and voting compulsory like in Australia.

Although CORD has an advantage when it comes to eligible voting numbers in its strongholds, this will not guarantee it victory in 2017 if many do not register and vote in order to avoid the infamous “Tyranny of Numbers” by Jubilee in 2013. Coalition in-fighting may also lead to a break-up of either of the coalitions or shifting support from one to the other.

BY STAN OYUNGA