Month: October 2015

TAMKO LA EDWARD NGOYAI LOWASSA KUHUSU HATMA YAKE KISIASA


Ndugu watanzania wenzangu awali ya yote nitoe shukrani zangu za dhati kwa namna mlivyoniunga mkono nikiwa ndani na nje ya CCM nikitafuta kuteuliwa na hata nilipokuwa mgombea urais wa Jamhuri ya Muungano wa Tanzania kupitia Chadema Kwa mwavuli wa UKAWA. Hapa natoa pongezi za kipekee kwa Mwenyekiti Mbowe, Maalim Seif, James Mbatia na UKAWA kwa ujumla kwa kunipa heshima hiyo.

Pili, nimeamua kuwatangazia rasmi watanzania wenzangu adhma yangu ya kustaafu siasa na kubaki kama mshauri kwa vyama vya upinzani nchini vinavyounda UKAWA. Naamini historia yangu itanakiliwa kwa kuongoza mapinduzi ya kidemokrasia na kujenga hamasa ya kutosha miongoni mwa wananchi walio wengi hususani vijana kuyataka mabadiliko, na kuwabana viongozi wao katika uwajibikaji. Hatukuweza kwenda Ikulu, lakini nina uhakika tumetuma ujumbe kwa viongozi wazembe kwamba watanzania sio watu wa kuchukuliwa mzaha.
Tatu,nakiri zipo kasoro zilizojitokeza kwenye uchaguzi huu, kama mkutano wangu na waandishi wa habari ulivyosema, sikubali matokeo yaliyotangazwa na tume. Lakini sitapenda kuingiza nchi yetu kwenye matatizo na machafuko. Hivyo nawaomba wafuasi wangu tuwe watulivu tukisubiri yanayojiri. Hata hivyo natambua kwamba Dkt. Magufuli ni kiongozi makini, nimewahi kufanya naye kazi katika awamu ya tatu na ya nne anazo sifa za kiuongozi zenye kujibu wito wa mahitaji ya sasa ya uongozi wa Taifa letu katika kipindi hiki. Sisi hatukuwa na shida nay eye, bali mfumo mbovu wa CCM. Namuomba sana akatimize ahadi zake kwa wananchi bila kupuuza walioniunga mkono, na atambue kwamba tumeshapanda mbegu ya mabadiliko ambayo itaendelea kuchipua na kuwa imara, hivyo amekalia kuti kavu na uchaguzi ujao kama asipowatumikia watanzania basi awe tayari kuachia dola.
Mwisho, namkumbusha kuwa dhamana ya urais ni shughuli nzito hasa kwa Taifa ambalo lina changamoto nyingi kama letu. Kwa wale marafiki zangu wa zamani wa CCM tusijengeane chuki kwa yaliyotokea kwani niliamua kuitafuta haki yangu sehemu nyingine. Kwa wale wana Mabadiliko wenzangu, nawaambia Aluta Continua, tutumie bunge kama sehemu ya kuonyesha watanzania na kuanza kuwaletea mabadiliko tuliyoyahubiri.

Mungu Ibariki Tanzania, Mungu Ibariki Africa.

Edward N Lowassa.
29.10.2015

ROAD TO KENYA ELECTIONS 2017: WHO WILL HAVE THE TYRANNY OF NUMBERS IN 2017?


INTRODUCTION
In the 2013 General Elections, which had the highest turn-out of any election in Kenya’s history (85.91 %), 2 million registered voters did not vote and 7.8 million eligible voters did not even register. That is a total eligible voter loss of 9.8 million (45 % of Adult population did not vote in 2013). Despite setting a voter registration target of 18.2 million Kenyans for the 2013 General Elections, the Independent Elections and Boundaries Commission (IEBC), managed to register only 14.3 million voters (78.6 % of target), by 18th December, 2012. The incremental difference between the 2007 and 2013 Elections was only 56,353, compared with 3,845,030 between the 2002 and 2007 Elections.

IEBC is now targeting to register 11.4 million Kenyans in order to reach a target of 25.7 million eligible voters before the 2017 General Elections, but this figure may be unrealistic as it’s based on the assumption that Kenya ‘s projected population would be 51.4 million in 2017. The actual projected population would be 48.3 million based on average annual growth rate of 2.4 %. Hence since adults make up 50 % of Kenya‘s population, and an average of 80 % of adults usually register as voters, the estimated voters would be 19.3 million (See Report 1A). If 90 % voter registration is achieved, then the figure rises to 21.7 million (See Report 2A). So IEBC should expect to register only 5 million new voters if 80 % registration is achieved or 7.3 million if 90 % is achieved.

2017 VOTER REGISTRATION ESTIMATE
In order to estimate the voter registration in 2017 by county and coalition, I used the Kenya Election Database Version 2.0, an Election Data Analysis and Strategic Election Planning software. From data extracted from the software, it was possible to prepare excel spreadsheets that show voter estimates at 80 % registration for all counties (Report 1A), for CORD strongholds (Report 1B), Jubilee strongholds (Report 1C), and Fifty/Fifty counties (Report 1D). I have also prepared spreadsheets to show voter estimates at 90 % registration for all counties (Report 2A), for CORD strongholds (Report 2B), Jubilee strongholds (Report 2C), and Fifty/Fifty counties (Report 2D).

County strongholds were determined by which coalition garnered the majority votes (above 66.6 %) in that county in the 2013 Presidential Elections. Where both coalitions failed to get a majority, then that county was designated “Fifty/Fifty”. For example in Narok County, the 5 out of the 6 constituencies elected an M.P. affiliated to the Jubilee coalition, but Raila Odinga of CORD had more votes than Uhuru Kenyatta of Jubilee (50 % against 46 %), hence making Narok a “Fifty/Fifty” county. Although Vihiga County was won by Musalia Mudavadi of Amani coalition, it is unlikely that he will stand again in 2017; hence Vihiga was placed under CORD.

Cord County Strongholds

NUMBER COUNTY MAIN ETHNIC
GROUP		 2017 POPULATION
PROJECTION		 2017 VOTER
ESTIMATE		 CORD % JUBILEE % TOTAL %
01 MOMBASA COSMOPOLITAN 1,175,152 470,061 72 24 96.00
02 KWALE DIGO 813,064 325,225 82 14 96.00
03 KILIFI GIRIAMA 1,388,278 555,311 85 11 96.00
04 TANA RIVER POKOMO 300,334 120,134 62 35 97.00
06 TAITA-TAVETA TAITA 356,106 142,442 83 14 97.00
15 KITUI KAMBA 1,266,899 506,760 81 15 96.00
16 MACHAKOS KAMBA 1,374,329 549,731 87 10 97.00
17 MAKUENI KAMBA 1,106,543 442,617 92 5 97.00
23 TURKANA TURKANA 1,070,104 428,042 68 30 98.00
37 KAKAMEGA LUHYA 2,077,474 830,990 95 3 98.00
38 VIHIGA LUHYA 693,832 277,533 95 2 97.00
39 BUNGOMA LUHYA 1,720,204 688,082 84 12 96.00
40 BUSIA LUHYA 930,676 372,271 95 4 99.00
41 SIAYA LUO 1,053,722 421,489 98 1 99.00
42 KISUMU LUO 1,212,105 484,842 98 1 99.00
43 HOMA BAY LUO 1,205,706 482,283 99 1 100.00
44 MIGORI LUO 1,147,380 458,952 88 10 98.00
45 KISII KISII 1,441,505 576,602 69 27 96.00
46 NYAMIRA KISII 748,413 299,365 67 29 96.00
21,081,827 8,432,731 84.21 13.05 97.26

Jubilee County Strongholds

NUMBER COUNTY MAIN ETHNIC
GROUP		 2017 POPULATION
PROJECTION		 2017 VOTER
ESTIMATE		 CORD % JUBILEE % TOTAL %
09 MANDERA KENYAN SOMALI 1,283,221 513,288 4 93 97.00
12 MERU MERU 1,696,733 678,693 8 89 97.00
13 THARAKA-NITHI MERU 457,028 182,811 5 92 97.00
14 EMBU EMBU 645,781 258,312 10 89 99.00
18 NYANDARUA KIKUYU 745,931 298,373 1 97 98.00
19 NYERI KIKUYU 867,641 347,056 2 96 98.00
20 KIRINYAGA KIKUYU 660,596 264,238 1 97 98.00
21 MURANGA KIKUYU 1,179,169 471,668 2 96 98.00
22 KIAMBU KIKUYU 2,030,726 812,290 8 90 98.00
24 WEST POKOT POKOT 641,375 256,550 24 73 97.00
27 UASIN GISHU KALENJIN 1,118,618 447,447 24 74 98.00
28 ELGEYO
MARAKWET		 KALENJIN 462,867 185,147 6 92 98.00
29 NANDI KALENJIN 941,959 376,784 16 82 98.00
30 BARINGO KALENJIN 695,007 278,003 10 88 98.00
31 LAIKIPIA KIKUYU 499,433 199,773 14 85 99.00
32 NAKURU COSMOPOLITAN 2,005,760 802,304 18 80 98.00
35 KERICHO KALENJIN 948,682 379,473 3 91 94.00
36 BOMET KALENJIN 905,957 362,383 5 93 98.00
17,786,483 7,114,593 8.94 88.72 97.67

Fifty-Fifty Counties

NUMBER COUNTY MAIN ETHNIC
GROUP		 2017 POPULATION
PROJECTION		 2017 VOTER ESTIMATE CORD % JUBILEE % TOTAL %
05 LAMU BAJUN 127,025 50,810 53 40 93.00
07 GARISSA KENYAN SOMALI 779,448 311,779 49 45 94.00
08 WAJIR KENYAN SOMALI 828,088 331,235 50 39 89.00
10 MARSABIT BORAN 364,249 145,699 49 47 96.00
11 ISIOLO BORAN 179,261 71,704 30 55 85.00
25 SAMBURU SAMBURU 280,158 112,063 58 41 99.00
26 TRANS NZOIA COSMOPOLITAN 1,024,265 409,706 58 37 95.00
33 NAROK MAASAI 1,064,501 425,800 50 46 96.00
34 KAJIADO MAASAI 859,827 343,931 45 52 97.00
47 NAIROBI COSMOPOLITAN 3,926,100 1,570,440 51 47 98.00
TOTALS 9,432,922 3,773,169 49.30 44.90 94.20

2017 VOTER REGISTRATION ESTIMATE IF 80 % REGISTRATION
According to Report 1A, the 2017 population projection for “Fifty/Fifty” counties is 9.4 million and voter registration estimate is 3.7 million if 80 % registration is achieved. CORD’s share is 51 % (1.9 million) hence total estimated voters are 10.3 million. Jubilee’s share is 46 % (1.7 million) hence total estimated voters are 8.8 million as shown on table below.

Voter Estimate at 80% Registration

COALITION COUNTIES COUNTY
POPULATION		 2012 REGISTERED
VOTERS		 2017 POPULATION
PROJECTION		 2017 VOTER
ESTIMATE		 50/50 VOTER
ESTIMATE		 TOTALS
CORD 19 16,851,980 5,685,292 21,081,827 8,432,731 1,946,036 10,378,767
JUBILEE 18 14,217,812 5,618,248 17,786,483 7,114,593 1,737,734 8,852,327
50/50 10 7,540,305 3,046,356 9,432,922 3,773,169 0 0
TOTALS 47 38,610,097 14,349,896 48,301,232 19,320,493 3,683,770 19,231,094
CORD 10,378,767
JUBILEE 8,852,327
TOTAL 19,231,094
VARIANCE 1,526,440

Hence out of the 19.2 million estimated registered voters in 2017, 10.3 million will come from CORD counties and CORD supporters in Fifty/Fifty counties and 8.8 million will come from Jubilee counties and Jubilee supporters in “Fifty/Fifty” counties. Hence CORD estimated voters will exceed Jubilee’s by 1.5 million.
2017 VOTER REGISTRATION ESTIMATE IF 90 % REGISTRATION
According to Report 2A, the 2017 population projection for “Fifty/Fifty” counties is 9.4 million and voter registration estimate is 4.1 million if 90 % registration is achieved. CORD’s share is 51 % (2.1 million) hence total estimated voters are 11.6 million. Jubilee’s share is 46 % (1.9 million) hence total estimated voters are 9.9 million as shown on table below.

Voter Estimate at 90% Registration

COALITION COUNTIES COUNTY
POPULATION		 2012 REGISTERED
VOTERS		 2017 POPULATION
PROJECTION		 2017 VOTER
ESTIMATE		 50/50
VOTER ESTIMATE		 TOTALS
CORD 19 16,851,980 5,685,292 21,081,827 9,486,822 2,189,290 11,676,112
JUBILEE 18 14,217,812 5,497,480 17,786,483 8,003,917 1,954,951 9,958,868
50/50 10 7,540,305 3,046,356 9,432,922 4,144,241 0 0
TOTALS 47 38,610,097 14,229,128 48,301,232 21,634,980 4,144,241 21,634,980
CORD 11,676,112
JUBILEE 9,958,868
TOTAL 21,634,980
VARIANCE 1,717,244

Hence out of the 21.6 million estimated registered voters in 2017, 11.6 million will come from CORD counties and CORD supporters in Fifty/Fifty counties and 9.9 million will come from Jubilee counties and Jubilee supporters in “Fifty/Fifty” counties. Hence CORD estimated voters will exceed Jubilee’s by 1.7 million.
Please note that not all voters in a coalition’s county stronghold will vote for that particular coalition but the aim of these reports is estimate how many voters are expected to be on the IEBC’s official Principal Register of Voters by the date of the 2017 General Elections on 8th August, 2017.
NEW “COMING OF AGE” VOTERS
According to the 2009 population census, there were 7.2 million Kenyans aged 11-18 out of which 3.4 million would have reached the age of 18 by 2012 and able to register as voters. But due to the low number of voters registered by December, 2012 (14.3 million out of target of 18 million), it seems most were not registered. Since the IEBC does not give the voter’s age when registering, it not possible to know the exact number.
Hence by 2017, it is estimated that about 5.8 million Kenyans who had not turned 18 by 2009 will have done so to enable then to register. Due to mortality and other factors only 80% of the 7.2 million will be eligible to register but some may not do so by either choice or delay in issuing ID cards.

Kenya Voting Age Group since August 2009 Census

AGE IN 2009 POPULATION AGE IN 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
11 842,590 15 16 17 18 19
12 1,100,601 16 17 18 19 20
13 963,285 17 18 19 20 21
14 929,757 18 19 20 21 22
TOTAL 3,836,233 NOT QUALIFIED TO REGISTER IN 2012
15 895,834 19 20 21 22 23
16 856,398 20 21 22 23 24
17 823,628 21 22 23 24 25
18 887,693 22 23 24 25 26
TOTAL 3,463,553 QUALIFIED TO REGISTER IN 2012
TOTAL ESTIMATE
80 %
AGE 12-18 IN 2009 WILL QUALIFY TO REGISTER IN 2016-TOTAL 6,457,196 5,165,757
AGE 11-18 IN 2009 WILL QUALIFY TO REGISTER IN 2017-TOTAL 7,299,786 5,839,829


DIASPORA VOTERS
The number of Kenyans in the Diaspora is estimated at 3 million, mostly in the United States, Britain, Germany, South Africa and United Arab Emirates. In the 2013 Elections only Kenyans living in Uganda and Tanzania were allowed to register and vote. Although the 2010 Constitution allows dual citizenship, the logistics and legal provisions led to the IEBC in abandoning plans for Diaspora registration and voting in 2013, except in East African. It is not clear if these problems will have been overcome by 2017. But the Diaspora is expected to have little impact in the voter registration for the 2017 General Elections, although the IEBC has started to collect data on Kenyans in the Diaspora on their website- http://www.iebc.or.ke
There is an estimated 500,000 Kenyans in the United States, 150,000 in Britain and 50,000 in the United Arab Emirates. About 70 % of the estimated 3 million Kenyans in the Diaspora are adults thus eligible to register and vote.

CONCLUSION
As long as voter registration is voluntary, it will be impossible to achieve 90 % voter registration and even this will be hard to attain unless the IEBC and political parties/coalitions came up with strategies to ensure most eligible Kenyans register. A radical solution is to make voter registration and voting compulsory like in Australia.

Although CORD has an advantage when it comes to eligible voting numbers in its strongholds, this will not guarantee it victory in 2017 if many do not register and vote in order to avoid the infamous “Tyranny of Numbers” by Jubilee in 2013. Coalition in-fighting may also lead to a break-up of either of the coalitions or shifting support from one to the other.
BY STAN OYUNGA

October 2015 elections provides a litmus test to Tanzania’s democracy


The October 2015 elections will be a true test of democracy in Tanzania. For the first time since the restoration of multiparty politics, a unified opposition has formed a credible threat to the 50-year hegemony maintained by the ruling party Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM). Yet as Tanzanians prepare to vote, Tanzania’s democracy shows signs of regress.

The European Union and the international community eagerly embrace Tanzania as a stable, peaceful, and democratic country in an otherwise turbulent region. And indeed, the country’s post-independence history has largely been free from the violent upheaval that continues to rock some of its less democratic neighbors. Its human rights–based foreign policy, compassionate treatment of refugees, and regional mediation role have earned it international praise. This peaceful stability has attracted donors, investors, and tourists alike.

Yet Tanzania’s “normalcy” risks obscuring simmering tensions. With two-thirds of its 50 million citizens living in poverty, few enjoy the benefits of the country’s remarkable economic growth, which has averaged around seven percent over the past decade. The Global Hunger Index places Tanzania second only to Burundi in the level of undernourishment in the East African Community. More than half of Tanzania’s youth, who comprise over two-thirds of the population, are unemployed.

Discontent over Tanzania’s uneven development has thus far not been reflected in electoral results. CCM, which has been able to peacefully extend its long-term rule into the democratic era, continues to enjoy significant advantages resulting from the country’s past as a single-party state. It can tap into firmly embedded party structures throughout all regions of Tanzania’s vast territory to influence voters at the grassroots level. It also benefits from a stable and substantial funding base, and holds strong control over state institutions. Because of CCM’s status as the liberation party, few Tanzanians questioned the party’s dominance in political life.

But it appears that the status quo may finally be cracking. Major opposition parties boycotted last year’s constitutional review process and joined forces to form an opposition coalition called UKAWA, a Kiswahili acronym for Coalition of the People’s Constitution.

Their protest centered on what they saw as an attempt by the ruling party to push through an unpopular constitution. Crucially, this draft rejected a reform of the Union, which would grant greater autonomy to the Zanzibar Isles, whose semiautonomous status presents a persistent challenge to national unity. To many Tanzanians, the stalled process revealed the lengths to which CCM is willing to go to quell calls for reform.

But in doing so, CCM may have overplayed its hand. The anticlimactic review process reinvigorated political life, repoliticized the Union question, and created high expectations about the freedom and fairness of elections. The electorate’s confidence in the potential of elections to bring about meaningful change has suffered, and after three years of popular debate, the sense of disaffection with and political misappropriation of the constitution has grown.

UKAWA is gaining momentum, especially since the appointment of former Prime Minister Edward Lowassa as its presidential candidate. The presidential hopeful was eliminated from the CCM nomination ballot, prompting a wave of further defections from CCM.

With less than three days to go, the electoral contest is heating up. CCM has been using its political clout to compound the structural barriers to free and fair elections. Timely and effective judicial remedies to challenge presidential results, as well as decisions of the National and Zanzibar Electoral Commissions, are absent.

Members of the commissions are appointed by presidential decree, making independence and impartiality virtually impossible. An imbalance in voter registration requirements between Zanzibar and the mainland, censoring of voter education material, and a controversial redrawing of electoral boundaries are further skewing an already uneven political field in CCM’s favor.

Recent weeks have also seen less subtle tactics of intimidation, harassment, and repression. All three major political parties have militias, which have been growing in force over the past several months, particularly in Zanzibar. If intimidation practices continue during the campaign period, with no judicial remedies to account for misconduct, Tanzanians may find themselves looking for other, less peaceful ways to express their grievances and settle disputes.

The European Union and the broader international community must use their influence to push Tanzanian authorities for a peaceful and credible electoral contest. But the EU should also remember its own long-term commitment to governance and democracy, which must go beyond the “good enough governance” of mere election support. Tanzania’s direct neighbors stand testimony to what happens when simmering tensions are allowed to fester.